As the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) celebrates its big success in Bihar, attention has shifted to whether this momentum can be continued in the upcoming battles in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The central question is whether an electoral model that worked in a multi-player state like Bihar, where caste dynamics, welfare schemes, and incumbency benefits shaped outcomes, can be transplanted into states with deeply embedded regional identities and different political priorities.
According to D. M. Diwakar, former Director at the A. N. Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna, and currently associated with the Development Research Institute, Jalsain, Bihar, the recent elections featured multiple political players, which created opportunities for alliances, cross-mobilisation, and welfare-driven campaigning. In contrast, West Bengal’s political landscape is dominated by a direct fight between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress led by CM Mamata Banerjee, leaving very little room for multi-cornered advantages.
With fewer players and a stronger regional identity, Bengal presents a tougher challenge.
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Another major difference is the lack of incumbency leverage. In Bihar, NDA constituents were part of the ruling coalition, enabling them to roll out welfare schemes such as direct cash transfers to women, enhanced pensions, and farmer benefits. These initiatives helped the alliance build strong voter goodwill, especially among women and economically weaker sections.
“They were in the government, so they could do these things. They have lesser chances of replicating that in Bengal,” Diwakar noted.
Caste politics, which played a significant role in Bihar’s electoral calculations, holds far less relevance in Bengal and Tamil Nadu. In Bengal, caste divisions are not as politically pronounced. Instead, the BJP has relied on issues like illegal immigration from Bangladesh.
Tamil Nadu, meanwhile, has a vastly different political culture. Identity politics there is more linguistic and ideological than caste-based, thus further reducing the applicability of Bihar’s model.
Diwakar further explained that an important factor often overlooked is the role of women voters in Bihar. Nitish Kumar’s targeted outreach significantly boosted NDA’s appeal among rural women, this is an advantage that the alliance might not enjoy in West Bengal or Tamil Nadu.
BJP's barriers to achieve majority votes in states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are also: language, people considering the saffron party as an outsider, and many more.
As the NDA prepares for high-stakes contests in states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the results could depend on state-specific strategies, rather than attempting to replicate the Bihar model.
