The National Democratic Alliance’s sweeping victory in Bihar has redrawn the state’s political map and crushed the hopes of the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance. What was widely expected to be a close contest, shaped by two decades of anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, turned into a rout for the Mahagathbandhan. The results have not only staggered the opposition but also highlighted deeper shifts that began months earlier, far beyond Bihar’s borders.
A Campaign That Looked Ready But Wasn’t Enough
This election was different from 2020. The RJD-Congress combine entered the fray with what appeared to be better preparation. Rahul Gandhi’s two-week ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’ lifted the morale of Congress workers, and Tejashwi Yadav followed with his own outreach campaign. Both leaders seemed more seasoned and more confident in countering the BJP-JD(U) pairing. Yet the alliance faltered where it mattered most.
Questions linger over Congress’s hesitation to project Tejashwi as the clear chief ministerial face. The mixed signals may have reinforced the impression that the partners were not fully aligned. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck a nerve by repeatedly warning voters that Tejashwi’s rise would bring back the days of “Katta Raj” and “Jungle Raj” associated with Lalu Prasad Yadav. Though the RJD kept Lalu away from the limelight, the voters’ memories proved sharper.
The Early Clues: Haryana Was First Turning Point
The seeds of Bihar’s result were sown earlier, first in Haryana. Despite predictions that the BJP was on the back foot, the party managed an unexpected win there. Critics accused the Congress of squandering a strong position.
This pattern repeated in Maharashtra. Just months after the NDA had suffered in the Lok Sabha polls, it stormed back in the assembly elections, taking nearly three-quarters of the seats and leaving the opposition stunned. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh delivered similar shocks. What looked like isolated setbacks began to take the shape of a larger trend.
A New Electoral Formula Emerges
At the heart of this shift lies a clear strategy, targeted cash transfers to women ahead of elections.
This approach was first tested in Madhya Pradesh under the Ladli Behna Yojana, which deposited Rs 1,500 into women’s accounts just before polling. The Election Commission did not intervene, and the scheme produced a significant political impact.
In Maharashtra, the Ladki Bahin Yojana, promising Rs 2,500 to women, helped flip a hostile environment in favour of the NDA within months. The same strategy proved decisive in Bihar.
Why Bihar Became Tipping Point
Six months ago, the mood in Bihar was very different. Nitish Kumar appeared weighed down by anti-incumbency, and many believed he was nearing the end of his political journey. But the chief minister, usually restrained in offering benefits, changed course dramatically.
The state government’s announcement of a Rs 10,000 cash transfer for women just before the polls, along with a promise of 125 free electricity units and a pension increase from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100, transformed the electoral landscape. Kumar had already spent years building women-centric schemes, but this final push proved decisive.
The Mahagathbandhan attempted to counter this with a promise of Rs 30,000 for women in January if elected. But voters, particularly women, appeared to favour the certainty of immediate relief over future assurances.
Caste Arithmetic: NDA Learns From Past Mistakes
Beyond welfare, the NDA refined its caste strategy. The inclusion of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Manch gave the alliance the backing of groups that together commanded nearly 7 per cent of the vote in 2020.
Although Mukesh Sahani’s VIP shifted to the Mahagathbandhan, the combined influence of Paswan and Kushwaha compensated for any loss. Concerns about trust deficits within the NDA, between the BJP and JD(U), and between JD(U) and LJP after 2020 proved unfounded.
On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan’s caste strategy, even with new partners such as the Indian Inclusive Party, failed to match the NDA’s consolidation.
A Harsh Reality For Opposition
The Bihar result has shaken the opposition more deeply than any recent state election. The optimism generated by the BJP’s poor performance in last year’s general election has evaporated. The opposition must now confront a difficult truth --- it has not been able to maintain momentum, craft a consistent strategy, or respond to the NDA’s evolving political playbook.
If the trend from Haryana to Maharashtra, and then to Bihar, means anything, it is that the NDA has gained a firm understanding of the new electoral landscape, while the opposition is still trying to catch up.
